Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12123

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.306). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12122, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12123
    27 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC

    GNB5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGNB5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef35359aadd3c33f

    discovery+0.39 p=0.306 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.152 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.306)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ea2a0aaacca419092373c667…
    follows 94d9bc78f9ae…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12123: GNB5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs -0.28 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GNB5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GNB5 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.02 p 0.929 (needs p < 1.8e-4)