Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12115

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12114, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12115
    27 Oct 2026, 16:51 UTC

    NUDT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUDT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered404e249e573e8a83

    discovery+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ef4da00deb622a5383e6f0bb…
    follows 23bea1f031bf…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12115: NUDT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUDT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.