Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1210

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1209, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1210
    17 Oct 2026, 17:23 UTC

    ZNF608

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionZNF608 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd9345706c1d969a9

    discovery-0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cf5aff35ecdf25f5057df5cd…
    follows 9b464c2e35ab…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1210: ZNF608 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF608 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.