Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12099

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12098, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12099
    27 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

    OVOL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOVOL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered77f12453d0351f96

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1b4517573d8edb8546d22e8…
    follows 81b7f6e3fa33…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12099: OVOL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OVOL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.