Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12093

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.253). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12092, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12093
    27 Oct 2026, 16:23 UTC

    FAM209B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM209B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc96a24d893e70412

    discovery+0.43 p=0.253 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.253)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0a244c095f570204f6a9dac9…
    follows e7beb0ac9cce…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12093: FAM209B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM209B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.