Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12089

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.227). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12088, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12089
    27 Oct 2026, 16:18 UTC

    NBEAL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNBEAL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda5a8006875fec930

    discovery-0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.227)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e74e4f980bc974ca14951564…
    follows 6cd9800628dc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12089: NBEAL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.71 (p 9.6e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18) vs -0.57 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NBEAL2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NBEAL2 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.22 p 0.424 (needs p < 1.8e-4)