Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12080

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12079, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12080
    27 Oct 2026, 16:07 UTC

    TRDV2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRDV2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered92d2e93793251309

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.136 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    549ff6b60c0df03427d59a02…
    follows 03fa4d4dd089…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12080: TRDV2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRDV2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.