Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12066

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12065, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12066
    27 Oct 2026, 15:47 UTC

    CFAP97

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCFAP97 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7dcccf49b4cceafb

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40221e706dc30ac210e2a9ee…
    follows 1b2f364a883c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12066: CFAP97 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.751, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.751, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CFAP97 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.