Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12054

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12053, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12054
    27 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC

    RNASE6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNASE6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8ec77a3a9ee5370b

    discovery-0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9b0713ee01865e80adce161f…
    follows 211016fa065d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12054: RNASE6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.11, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNASE6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.