Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12037

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12036, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12037
    27 Oct 2026, 15:09 UTC

    NDRG4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNDRG4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered540a3a27470a38e1

    discovery+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    06eb35aa23f5dde808cbebb9…
    follows 0d4c51f59f88…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12037: NDRG4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.12, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NDRG4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.