Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12016

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12015, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12016
    27 Oct 2026, 14:41 UTC

    CALCR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCALCR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1c1bfce5faa7f4a5

    discovery+0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3b4847e31a4615abfc77cf5…
    follows 7f7bc14703d6…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12016: CALCR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.53 (p 0.024, n 18), 95% CI +0.08 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CALCR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.