Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12014

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.83 p 0.0058; held-out -0.36 p 0.348). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12013, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12014
    27 Oct 2026, 14:39 UTC

    FGF12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7f91b8d4021f2c8e

    discovery+0.83 p=0.0058 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.83 p 0.0058; held-out -0.36 p 0.348)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    b320284404ba2cc0990dcfd1…
    follows 8c6a5e4c4bd8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12014: FGF12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.