Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11996

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.638). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11995, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11996
    27 Oct 2026, 14:14 UTC

    RPL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered45be0455c1a769df

    discovery-0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.638)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    993b0f3b419485eaf1446f0c…
    follows cc6991e919da…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11996: RPL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.09, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.