Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11984

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11983, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11984
    27 Oct 2026, 13:57 UTC

    RIT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRIT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede18784be7ab12f4c

    discovery+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.601 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f9b58d0026dd93928ca4a2ae…
    follows 97fc47729b9c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11984: RIT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RIT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.