Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11969

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11968, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11969
    27 Oct 2026, 13:38 UTC

    LRRC3B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRRC3B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd17ddd558b7280f2

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cb78d58b412b37db728e2b3b…
    follows 7e163db1ddc8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11969: LRRC3B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC3B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.