Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11964

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11963, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11964
    27 Oct 2026, 13:32 UTC

    ATP5MC3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP5MC3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered91703571ba09700e

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.341 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9a1b32d7a6e214ff11a2f755…
    follows 0ebde2a653f8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11964: ATP5MC3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP5MC3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.