Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11944

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.842). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11943, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11944
    27 Oct 2026, 13:05 UTC

    TAGLN3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAGLN3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered71e00f401e0cbb44

    discovery+0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.842)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    11ed7a5c63311bf072f63b6a…
    follows c1ef61de05e1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11944: TAGLN3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAGLN3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.