Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11941

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11940, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11941
    27 Oct 2026, 12:59 UTC

    CELF4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCELF4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8315b50a403c0d23

    discovery-0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9fb4c02abcf02d15880883c4…
    follows 3b4e1ee828da…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11941: CELF4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CELF4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.