Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11939

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.194). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11938, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11939
    27 Oct 2026, 12:57 UTC

    MGP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMGP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered216fc61764e6d44d

    discovery+0.48 p=0.194 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.194)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d0367db78097387e2a556b3b…
    follows 9f06c2ebe5c0…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11939: MGP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs +0.30 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MGP in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MGP · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.40 p 0.155 (needs p < 1.8e-4)