Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11907

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11906, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11907
    27 Oct 2026, 12:12 UTC

    PPAT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPAT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc7333109484cac25

    discovery+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.293 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b0ba254879e19f6fe91322b1…
    follows c5acedb05ba5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11907: PPAT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.08, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPAT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.