Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11902

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.222). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11901, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11902
    27 Oct 2026, 12:07 UTC

    ZEB2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionZEB2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda8935052b3dde931

    discovery+0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.870 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.222)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1df6b00f1bb4fb0d14108fe5…
    follows bb6c1992334a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11902: ZEB2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZEB2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.