Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11895

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11894, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11895
    27 Oct 2026, 11:58 UTC

    TMEM43

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM43 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc6eb28879b5c6ddd

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d0e76e9a7277222b13491a15…
    follows aaa4c46bf0c7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11895: TMEM43 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.02, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM43 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.