Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11891

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11890, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11891
    27 Oct 2026, 11:53 UTC

    CHCHD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHCHD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1147436b7ac20002

    discovery+0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    922300723a518a896ce9f370…
    follows 9bae6c581ff3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11891: CHCHD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.14, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHCHD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.