Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11886

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11885, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11886
    27 Oct 2026, 11:47 UTC

    AIDA

    microglia, braak

    predictionAIDA in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5dc0d77ef90f0e04

    discovery+0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2d88b96fdfe6f1084c099453…
    follows dc2d970dc5e5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11886: AIDA in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.25, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AIDA in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.