Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11884

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11883, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11884
    27 Oct 2026, 11:44 UTC

    GNLY

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGNLY in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered470b40b9bf20bb7d

    discovery-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.157 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aaae865eb56a37e2c16fda30…
    follows 9e4ae192c26a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11884: GNLY in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GNLY in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.