Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11880

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11879, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11880
    27 Oct 2026, 11:39 UTC

    ATL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered03a0ae1f0a74bf05

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9849b7daf55d5b2e735cccab…
    follows 1f90f684a947…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11880: ATL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.20, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.