Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11873

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11872, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11873
    27 Oct 2026, 11:31 UTC

    S100A7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionS100A7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5caaef5f4710d3db

    discovery-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d5aa36110f276fae815b7bb…
    follows 0471c7836f97…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11873: S100A7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for S100A7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.