Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11871

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.287). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11870, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11871
    27 Oct 2026, 11:28 UTC

    BCOR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCOR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcf449ad956907c9a

    discovery-0.40 p=0.287 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.287)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2a41fd0ed0f3aa2c961ac5bc…
    follows c8d0c84f35e4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11871: BCOR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCOR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.