Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11869

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11868, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11869
    27 Oct 2026, 11:25 UTC

    PATJ

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPATJ in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1e1c30f52ab6b88e

    discovery+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.170 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b41b4bf5a5d1b12b78d7f114…
    follows b87a7af413b8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11895 (2026-10-27 11:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11869: PATJ in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PATJ in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.