Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11863

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.644). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11862, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11863
    27 Oct 2026, 11:17 UTC

    TPPP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPPP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered799718a3c7455bf3

    discovery-0.18 p=0.644 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.098 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.644)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5bbaba367d4759d7d04e86f6…
    follows cd857267702e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11868 (2026-10-27 11:24 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11863: TPPP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.06, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPPP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.