Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11852

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.72 p 0.028; held-out +0.49 p 0.183). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11851, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11852
    27 Oct 2026, 11:03 UTC

    TWF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTWF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfcf0597652fd136d

    discovery+0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication+0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.72 p 0.028; held-out +0.49 p 0.183)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    dd78c01654710b5cfc7662d0…
    follows a5a828254b8c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11868 (2026-10-27 11:24 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11852: TWF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18), 95% CI +0.20 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.56 to +0.73, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TWF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.