Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11844

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11843, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11844
    27 Oct 2026, 10:52 UTC

    MAP7D2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP7D2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf8375ecf569eaf39

    discovery+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4350b9d5bf9dcb622c37ab93…
    follows cfa2f65f4e30…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11868 (2026-10-27 11:24 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11844: MAP7D2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.19, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP7D2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.