Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11840

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.020; held-out +0.22 p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11839, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11840
    27 Oct 2026, 10:46 UTC

    VAV3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVAV3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered941c997350b33851

    discovery+0.75 p=0.020 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.020; held-out +0.22 p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    6a6c34aaf8de89cb59a38f55…
    follows 096bdf0b1e2f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11841 (2026-10-27 10:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11840: VAV3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VAV3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.