Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11835

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.146). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11834, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11835
    27 Oct 2026, 10:40 UTC

    PGM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPGM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered436922f26607b365

    discovery+0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.146)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1357f2b3b5683260c7b17f10…
    follows e556381d3aed…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11841 (2026-10-27 10:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11835: PGM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PGM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.