Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11822

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.750). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11821, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11822
    27 Oct 2026, 10:24 UTC

    SLC16A9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC16A9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb3d587fc2db4d619

    discovery+0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.750)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    494cd2dff15ca42322b593a5…
    follows e89512dca65c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11841 (2026-10-27 10:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11822: SLC16A9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.105, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC16A9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.