Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11820

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.143). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11819, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11820
    27 Oct 2026, 10:21 UTC

    KRT19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKRT19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfce8551c0e5997a3

    discovery-0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.759 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.143)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0acc0d6c2d8b06d7e425bcdb…
    follows 9ea7f9c28dc3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11841 (2026-10-27 10:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11820: KRT19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KRT19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.