Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11818

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.12 p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11817, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11818
    27 Oct 2026, 10:18 UTC

    DCAF17

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDCAF17 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf689471ce5820a14

    discovery+0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.12 p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    76029921bdfbbfabe114f660…
    follows e02e25248f06…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11841 (2026-10-27 10:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11818: DCAF17 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18), 95% CI +0.08 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DCAF17 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.