Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11810

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.560). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11809, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11810
    27 Oct 2026, 10:07 UTC

    DHX9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDHX9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf1dc95bd5cc49724

    discovery+0.23 p=0.560 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.560)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fe4253333182ee483ac351f4…
    follows c47ee6b6a82a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11814 (2026-10-27 10:13 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11810: DHX9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DHX9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.