Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11798

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11797, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11798
    27 Oct 2026, 09:51 UTC

    CACUL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCACUL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfa4d4c012d5e0891

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.706 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    00a330798b121e114facacb9…
    follows 70b912b72c8a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11814 (2026-10-27 10:13 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11798: CACUL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CACUL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.