Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11792

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.063). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11791, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11792
    27 Oct 2026, 09:42 UTC

    CEACAM6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCEACAM6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5274dc462d3d5319

    discovery-0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.136 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.063)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    80576dfbed02f5fae24e1e35…
    follows 6e12d90b02ce…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11814 (2026-10-27 10:13 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11792: CEACAM6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.03, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CEACAM6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.