Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11790

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.179). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11789, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11790
    27 Oct 2026, 09:40 UTC

    NR4A3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNR4A3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5d764514003b4f08

    discovery-0.49 p=0.179 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.179)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8b253c574114bd5929670a1b…
    follows 7df3a4c2cf29…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11814 (2026-10-27 10:13 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11790: NR4A3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NR4A3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.