Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11781

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11780, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11781
    27 Oct 2026, 09:26 UTC

    ERO1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionERO1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6bb1412a2c96aaee

    discovery-0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.805 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5284ce19784080ce5b2fe1f6…
    follows ffbce26f31d2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11789 (2026-10-27 09:38 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11781: ERO1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERO1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.