Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11767

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.020; held-out +0.26 p 0.499). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11766, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11767
    27 Oct 2026, 09:07 UTC

    UBAP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBAP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered588b0014ba4655cf

    discovery+0.75 p=0.020 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.020; held-out +0.26 p 0.499)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    15a38a8093d31cae31e4f682…
    follows 0afb8fc7d360…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11789 (2026-10-27 09:38 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11767: UBAP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBAP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.