Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11763

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.14 p 0.723). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11762, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11763
    27 Oct 2026, 09:01 UTC

    SLC47A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC47A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered951181a21e896be2

    discovery-0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.723 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.14 p 0.723)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    8415cf2fb62aee0ffddddb75…
    follows b81b22228f56…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11764 (2026-10-27 09:03 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11763: SLC47A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC47A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.