Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11751

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11750, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11751
    27 Oct 2026, 08:45 UTC

    MS4A4E

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMS4A4E in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede04b76e5c60b9091

    discovery-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d6ab2fa054c23ba5aa9fa4d3…
    follows 368e1db9242a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11764 (2026-10-27 09:03 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11751: MS4A4E in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MS4A4E in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.