Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11746

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11745, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11746
    27 Oct 2026, 08:39 UTC

    BRSK1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionBRSK1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered85b9d09a11040ed8

    discovery-0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1bac0498e23c6931a00f3945…
    follows 30a675cc401e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11764 (2026-10-27 09:03 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11746: BRSK1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BRSK1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.