Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11744

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11743, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11744
    27 Oct 2026, 08:36 UTC

    FNIP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFNIP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4fff6710c6b3adf9

    discovery-0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    87de0bc8b7de4f2497256d8f…
    follows 85bec7122db7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11764 (2026-10-27 09:03 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11744: FNIP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FNIP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.