Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11736

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.287). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11735, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11736
    27 Oct 2026, 08:28 UTC

    VPS52

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionVPS52 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered53030327ad51ed97

    discovery+0.40 p=0.287 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.501 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.287)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df75638d0164fb6d74609b63…
    follows a2123b26d722…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11737 (2026-10-27 08:28 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11736: VPS52 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VPS52 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.