Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11732

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11731, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11732
    27 Oct 2026, 08:22 UTC

    DCTN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDCTN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2608764c7b9e9648

    discovery-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    70b524d080e7ec6efa918f06…
    follows 1a681ba6e39f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11737 (2026-10-27 08:28 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11732: DCTN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DCTN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.