Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11730

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.199). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11729, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11730
    27 Oct 2026, 08:19 UTC

    PHLDA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHLDA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc6ff0cb026733240

    discovery+0.47 p=0.199 n=9

    replication+0.66 p=0.055 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.199)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f02b3d087166493706f1a63c…
    follows c5e548e29b1c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11737 (2026-10-27 08:28 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11730: PHLDA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHLDA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.